Dutch housing market shows growth in second quarter of 2023

The housing market showed growth in the second quarter of 2023, with NVM brokers selling more than 34,000 existing homes for sale. This represents a significant increase of 20% compared to the first quarter of the same year. The average selling price of homes for sale also showed an increase, while the number of new homes sold also increased.

The second quarter of 2023 showed a median sales price of €410,000 for existing homes, representing a slight increase from the previous quarter. However, compared to the same period last year, there was still a decrease. The different house types showed the following changes in price:

• Mezzanine houses: -7,1%
• Corner houses: -8,4%
• Semi-detached homes: -9,8%
• Detached houses: -11,1%
• Apartments: -9,4%

Tightness indicator drops, but not yet a balanced market

The tightness indicator, which measures supply in the Dutch housing market, fell to 2.8 in the second quarter of 2023, compared with 3.2 in the first quarter of the same year. This indicator reflects the number of choices buyers have in the housing market. A balanced housing market has a tightness indicator between 5 and 10, but currently there is still a significant shortage of choices. A tightness indicator above 10 indicates a buyer's market, where buyers are in control during negotiations.

Sales time shortens

The duration of supply in the housing market, or the average time a home for sale is available in days, was 67 days in the second quarter of 2023. This is 17 days shorter than in the first quarter of the same year. However, in the same period last year, homes were still selling significantly faster, with an average duration of just 32 days.

Increase in new construction sales

In addition to sales of existing homes, the number of new construction homes sold also increased in the second quarter of 2023. Especially in the lower price brackets, there is strong interest among buyers, with energy efficiency and lower maintenance costs being important drivers for choosing a new-build home. Information meetings on new construction projects are well attended, especially in large cities where demand for new homes significantly exceeds supply. This is not expected to change in the near future, partly due to government measures, increased interest rates and the cumbersome procedures surrounding construction projects, which complicate the development of new homes.

Sales price versus asking price

Less than a year ago, it was common to pay substantially more than the asking price when buying a home because of the scarcity of homes and high demand. Although supply is still limited, the recent cooling in the housing market has also had an impact. In particular, sharply increased mortgage rates have reduced the maximum possible mortgage, resulting in lower prices buyers can afford. On the other hand, this decline has been partially offset by the rise in average wages. In the second quarter of 2023, the final sales price averaged -0.5% below the asking price, compared with -1.2% in the first quarter.

Housing market outlook

Although housing market growth was positive in the second quarter of 2023, there is a possibility that it was only a temporary upturn. Several banks and economists predict another slight decline in the average home price for the remainder of 2023 and the beginning of the next year. This is mainly attributed to increased mortgage rates. Nevertheless, the mismatch between supply and demand remains a major factor keeping prices high. Buyers with savings or excess value on their current home provide a solid floor under prices. In this respect, a further rebound seems likely, as long as (economic) developments do not upset the balance.

Interested in a home and curious about your maximum mortgage? Calculate it here. Or contact one of our advisors, we are happy to help!